Updated on:12/18/2025 04:48 PM 
The cryptocurrency world is buzzing with anticipation as blockchain-based prediction platform Polymarket experiences unprecedented trading activity surrounding HBO's upcoming documentary that promises to unveil the true identity of Bitcoin's enigmatic creator, Satoshi Nakamoto.
According to the platform's data, the market "Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?" has rapidly emerged as one of Polymarket's top 10 most-traded markets this month, demonstrating the immense interest in solving one of crypto's greatest mysteries.
Despite being active for less than a week, the daily trading volume has already surged to $2.5 million, attracting 1,778 users as of Oct. 7, based on Dune Analytics figures. This remarkable activity highlights how cryptocurrency documentary market speculation has evolved into a significant financial phenomenon.
Further underscoring the market's significance, Polymarket's data reveals substantial wager accumulation, with the pool exceeding $15 million in total bets. This blockchain prediction platform trading volume demonstrates the intersection of cryptocurrency and predictive markets.
As the documentary's release approaches, crypto bettors remain divided on who will be revealed as Bitcoin's elusive creator, with several prominent figures emerging as leading candidates in the Satoshi Nakamoto identity candidates investigation.
The platform's analytics indicate that bettors are concentrating on several key individuals, including Nick Szabo, Len Sassaman, Adam Back, David Kleiman, and Hal Finney, each presenting compelling odds of being identified as the mysterious cryptocurrency pioneer.
HBO's highly anticipated documentary is set to premiere on Oct. 9 at 2:00 A.M. UTC, promising to bring clarity to years of conjecture surrounding the cryptocurrency's mysterious origins.
When the market initially launched on Oct. 4, Len Sassaman held commanding odds as high as %, fueled by his cryptographic expertise, distinctive British English usage, and connections to the late Hal Finney, an early Bitcoin adopter and another potential Satoshi candidate.
Additionally, Sassaman's pioneering work in privacy technologies, which closely paralleled Bitcoin's architectural design, further intensified speculation about his potential role as the cryptocurrency's creator.
However, his odds have subsequently plummeted following comments from documentary director Cullen Hoback suggesting that Satoshi Nakamoto might still be alive. This development led many bettors to dismiss Sassaman as a possibility, given that he passed away in 2011.
Sassaman's widow, Meredith Patterson, reportedly disclosed that HBO never contacted her for the documentary, adding another layer of skepticism to his candidacy. His close friend, former roommate, and Chia creator Bram Cohen further cast doubt by asserting that Sassaman lacked the technical proficiency required to develop Bitcoin.
Nevertheless, in a recent podcast appearance, Cohen intriguingly alluded to the possibility of Satoshi representing a collaborative effort between Finney and Sassaman, suggesting Finney possessed the technical capabilities while Sassaman contributed the writing expertise. Cohen commented that the theory of Satoshi not being an individual but rather a joint project between Sassaman and Finney "fits really well, actually."
Despite these developments, some bettors continue to consider Sassaman a viable candidate, though his odds have now fallen below 10%.
While Sassaman's prospects have diminished, a growing number of bettors now believe Nick Szabo, the American computer scientist behind Bitcoin precursor BitGold, could be the true Satoshi.
Szabo currently leads with 13.2% of the betting odds. Although BitGold never officially launched, it's widely regarded as a significant precursor to Bitcoin, featuring peer-to-peer networking, proof-of-work mining, and cryptographic elements—concepts later fundamental to Bitcoin's architecture.
This historical connection frequently positions Szabo at the center of discussions regarding Satoshi Nakamoto's true identity. Despite these compelling parallels, Szabo has consistently and categorically denied being the mysterious creator of Bitcoin.
